Europa Fc 1–1 Valls: Result & Stats

Europa Fc

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Valls

Alberto González 37'

Pau López 89' (OG)

11/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Europa Fc57%

×Draw25%

Valls18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Europa FcExpected goals in this matchValls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.74

Europa Fc

1.57

Valls

0.74

Europa Fc creates 112% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 15 away

2.02

creates per match

0.73

0.76

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Europa Fc

2.02

Valls

0.73

allows per match

Europa Fc

0.76

Valls

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par

Valls+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Valls →

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw

82%

Europa Fc or Valls

75%

Draw or Valls

43%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+

31%

Valls wins by 2+

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals

79%

Europa Fc 2+ goals

46%

Europa Fc 3+ goals

21%

Valls 1+ goals

52%

Valls 2+ goals

17%

Valls 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)

77%

Valls (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

Valls away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 2.02 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.57

Valls attack 0.73 + Europa Fc defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Europa Fc scores more

57%

level

25%

Valls scores more

18%

Europa Fc at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Alberto González

59'

Cesc Martínez← Eric Martí

59'

Joel Marigot← Arnau Cucurull

62'

Gerard Nolla← Varona

62'

Arnau Vilamitjana← Bangaly Diakhaby

70'

Ramón Miranda← Albert Plana

70'

Sergi Gomez← Sergi Masqué

70'

Oscar Pérez← Aleix Ruiz

74'

Carlos Cano← Albert Marti

87'

Guillén← David Jiménez

89'

Pau LópezOwn goal

Europa

Valls

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🥅

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Manager: Carles Raventós

62'▲Gerard Nolla←▼Varona

62'▲Arnau Vilamitjana←▼Bangaly Diakhaby

74'▲Carlos Cano←▼Albert Marti

87'▲Guillén←▼David Jiménez

Europa Fc substitutes

NollaVilamitjanaCanoGuillén

Manager: Joan Pallarés

59'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Eric Martí

59'▲Joel Marigot←▼Arnau Cucurull

70'▲Ramón Miranda←▼Albert Plana

70'▲Sergi Gomez←▼Sergi Masqué

70'▲Oscar Pérez←▼Aleix Ruiz

Valls substitutes

MartínezMarigotMirandaGomezPérez