Europa Fc 1–0 Teruel: Result & Stats

Europa Fc

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Teruel

4/12/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Can Drago

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Europa Fc48%

×Draw26%

Teruel26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Europa FcExpected goals in this matchTeruel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.00

Europa Fc

1.47

Teruel

1.00

Europa Fc creates 47% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.68

creates per match

0.79

1.21

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Europa Fc

1.68

Teruel

0.79

allows per match

Europa Fc

1.21

Teruel

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par

Teruel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Teruel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw

74%

Europa Fc or Teruel

74%

Draw or Teruel

52%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+

24%

Teruel wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals

77%

Europa Fc 2+ goals

43%

Europa Fc 3+ goals

18%

Teruel 1+ goals

63%

Teruel 2+ goals

26%

Teruel 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)

65%

Teruel (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Teruel away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 1.68 + Teruel defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.47

Teruel attack 0.79 + Europa Fc defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Europa Fc scores more

48%

level

26%

Teruel scores more

26%

Europa Fc at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff