Europa Fc 1–0 Sants: Result & Stats

Europa Fc

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sants

3/1/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 26Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Europa Fc63%

×Draw22%

Sants15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Europa FcExpected goals in this matchSants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.79

Europa Fc

1.88

Sants

0.79

Europa Fc creates 138% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 45 away

2.02

creates per match

0.82

0.76

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Europa Fc

2.02

Sants

0.82

allows per match

Europa Fc

0.76

Sants

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par

Sants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Sants →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw

85%

Europa Fc or Sants

78%

Draw or Sants

37%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+

38%

Sants wins by 2+

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals

85%

Europa Fc 2+ goals

56%

Europa Fc 3+ goals

29%

Sants 1+ goals

55%

Sants 2+ goals

19%

Sants 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)

81%

Sants (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

Sants away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 2.02 + Sants defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sants attack 0.82 + Europa Fc defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Europa Fc scores more

63%

level

22%

Sants scores more

15%

Europa Fc at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff