Europa Fc 2–0 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Europa Fc

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sabadell

K. Noureddine 57', 48'

11/28/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Nou Sardenya Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Europa Fc41%

×Draw26%

Sabadell33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Europa FcExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.22

Europa Fc

1.38

Sabadell

1.22

Europa Fc creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

1.68

creates per match

1.23

1.21

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Europa Fc

1.68

Sabadell

1.23

allows per match

Europa Fc

1.21

Sabadell

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw

67%

Europa Fc or Sabadell

74%

Draw or Sabadell

59%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+

19%

Sabadell wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals

75%

Europa Fc 2+ goals

40%

Europa Fc 3+ goals

16%

Sabadell 1+ goals

70%

Sabadell 2+ goals

34%

Sabadell 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)

55%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Sabadell away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 1.68 + Sabadell defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sabadell attack 1.23 + Europa Fc defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Europa Fc scores more

41%

level

26%

Sabadell scores more

33%

Europa Fc at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

57'

58'

58'

58'

M. A. Ramirez Carrasco← D. Astals

65'

O. Vacas← K. Noureddine

73'

S. Cortes← Q. Liameed

73'

81'

82'

82'

90+2'

T. Caravaca← I. Gonzalez

Europa

Sabadell

1

Fuoli

14

▼

Astals

15

Cervera

5

Bonaldo

21

▼

Sergi

23

Priego

20

Cerarols

22

▼

Liameed

19

▼

Lopez

17

▼

9

1

2

5

4

22

17

▼

Ghailan

16

▼

8

3

7

29

⚽2

▼

Noureddin

Manager: Alberto González

65'▲O. Vacas←▼K. Noureddine

82'▲A. Pla←▼A. Ghailan

90+2'▲T. Caravaca←▼I. Gonzalez

Europa Fc substitutes

13Garcia18Cespedes34Sanchez20Vacas10Pla23Caravaca33Mokhles19Andrews11Toni9Mahicas

Manager: David Movilla

58'▲T. Ripoll←▼J. Lopez

58'▲G. Fornes←▼A. Coscia

58'▲M. A. Ramirez Carrasco←▼D. Astals

73'▲S. Cortes←▼Q. Liameed

73'▲R. Martinez←▼Sergi

Sabadell substitutes

28Ciurans13Ortega7Ripoll3Fornes2Aleman12Gonzalez18Ortega10Carrasco27Estebe8Cortes29Utges11Martinez