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Europa Fc vs Reus — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Europa Fc
Europa Fc
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Reus
Reus
3/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 30Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Europa Fc84%
×Draw12%
Reus4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa Fc
2.51
Reus
0.38

Europa Fc creates 561% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 18 away

creates per match

Europa Fc
2.02
Reus
0.00

allows per match

Europa Fc
0.76
Reus
3.00

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw
96%
Europa Fc or Reus
88%
Draw or Reus
16%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+
62%
Reus wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals
92%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
71%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
45%
Reus 1+ goals
32%
Reus 2+ goals
6%
Reus 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)
95%
Reus (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

Reus away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 2.02 + Reus defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.51

Reus attack 0.00 + Europa Fc defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Europa Fc scores more
84%
level
12%
Reus scores more
4%

Europa Fc at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Europa Fc 3 – 0 Reus

Europa Fc beat Reus 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 25, 2020.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya in Barcelona.