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Europa Fc vs Igualada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Europa Fc
Europa Fc
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Igualada
Igualada
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 20Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Europa Fc64%
×Draw21%
Igualada15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa Fc
2.01
Igualada
0.84

Europa Fc creates 139% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 28 away

creates per match

Europa Fc
2.02
Igualada
0.93

allows per match

Europa Fc
0.76
Igualada
2.00

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par
Igualada+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Igualada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw
85%
Europa Fc or Igualada
79%
Draw or Igualada
36%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+
40%
Igualada wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals
87%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
59%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
32%
Igualada 1+ goals
57%
Igualada 2+ goals
21%
Igualada 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)
81%
Igualada (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

Igualada away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 2.02 + Igualada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.01

Igualada attack 0.93 + Europa Fc defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Europa Fc scores more
64%
level
21%
Igualada scores more
15%

Europa Fc at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Europa Fc vs Igualada

Europa Fc beat Igualada 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya in Barcelona.