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Europa Fc vs Antequera — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Europa Fc
Europa Fc
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Antequera
Antequera
12/12/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Nou Sardenya Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Europa Fc45%
×Draw26%
Antequera29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa Fc
1.47
Antequera
1.13

Europa Fc creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Europa Fc
1.68
Antequera
1.05

allows per match

Europa Fc
1.21
Antequera
1.26

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par
Antequera+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Antequera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw
71%
Europa Fc or Antequera
74%
Draw or Antequera
55%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+
22%
Antequera wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals
77%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
43%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
18%
Antequera 1+ goals
68%
Antequera 2+ goals
31%
Antequera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)
61%
Antequera (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Antequera away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 1.68 + Antequera defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.47

Antequera attack 1.05 + Europa Fc defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Europa Fc scores more
45%
level
26%
Antequera scores more
29%

Europa Fc at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Europa Fc 2–0 Antequera

Europa Fc beat Antequera 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 12, 2025.

The match was played at Nou Sardenya Municipal Stadium in Barcelona.