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Eurajoki vs PP-70 — Suomen Cup 2018

Eurajoki
Eurajoki
FT
2 – 5
PP-70
PP-70
3/25/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundEurajoen Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Eurajoki10%
×Draw11%
PP-7079%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eurajoki
1.75
PP-70
4.58

PP-70 creates 162% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Eurajoki
1.00
PP-70
3.83

allows per match

Eurajoki
5.33
PP-70
2.50

finishing

Eurajoki+0.00on par
PP-70+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eurajoki ↓

PP-70 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–44%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–36%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–42%

Most likely 1–4 (7%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

Eurajoki or draw
21%
Eurajoki or PP-70
89%
Draw or PP-70
90%

Winning margin

Eurajoki wins by 2+
4%
PP-70 wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Eurajoki 1+ goals
83%
Eurajoki 2+ goals
52%
Eurajoki 3+ goals
25%
PP-70 1+ goals
99%
PP-70 2+ goals
93%
PP-70 3+ goals
80%

Draw no bet

Eurajoki (draw refunded)
11%
PP-70 (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eurajoki at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

PP-70 away — creates 3.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eurajoki attack 1.00 + PP-70 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

PP-70 attack 3.83 + Eurajoki defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Eurajoki scores more
10%
level
11%
PP-70 scores more
79%

PP-70 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "PP-70 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eurajoki 2 – 5 PP-70

PP-70 beat Eurajoki 5-2 in Suomen Cup on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Eurajoen Tekonurmi in Eurajoki.