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Eugendorf vs Zell am See — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Eugendorf
Eugendorf
CANC
00:00
Zell am See
Zell am See
4/4/2020Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 17Sportzentrum Eugendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Eugendorf46%
×Draw23%
Zell am See30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eugendorf
1.74
Zell am See
1.37

Eugendorf creates 27% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 8 away

creates per match

Eugendorf
2.10
Zell am See
1.63

allows per match

Eugendorf
1.11
Zell am See
1.38

finishing

Eugendorf+0.00on par
Zell am See+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eugendorf ↓

Zell am See →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Eugendorf or draw
70%
Eugendorf or Zell am See
77%
Draw or Zell am See
54%

Winning margin

Eugendorf wins by 2+
25%
Zell am See wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Eugendorf 1+ goals
82%
Eugendorf 2+ goals
52%
Eugendorf 3+ goals
25%
Zell am See 1+ goals
75%
Zell am See 2+ goals
40%
Zell am See 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Eugendorf (draw refunded)
60%
Zell am See (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eugendorf at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.11 · 83 matches

Zell am See away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eugendorf attack 2.10 + Zell am See defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.74

Zell am See attack 1.63 + Eugendorf defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eugendorf scores more
46%
level
23%
Zell am See scores more
30%

Eugendorf at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Eugendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eugendorf vs Zell am See — Match Preview

Eugendorf face Zell am See on April 4, 2020 in this Landesliga - Salzburg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Eugendorf host Zell am See at Sportzentrum Eugendorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.