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Eugendorf vs Siezenheim — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Eugendorf
Eugendorf
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Siezenheim
Siezenheim
8/21/2025Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 4Sportzentrum Eugendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Eugendorf54%
×Draw21%
Siezenheim24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eugendorf
2.10
Siezenheim
1.35

Eugendorf creates 56% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 75 away

creates per match

Eugendorf
2.10
Siezenheim
1.59

allows per match

Eugendorf
1.11
Siezenheim
2.11

finishing

Eugendorf+0.00on par
Siezenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eugendorf ↓

Siezenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Eugendorf or draw
76%
Eugendorf or Siezenheim
79%
Draw or Siezenheim
46%

Winning margin

Eugendorf wins by 2+
33%
Siezenheim wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Eugendorf 1+ goals
88%
Eugendorf 2+ goals
62%
Eugendorf 3+ goals
35%
Siezenheim 1+ goals
74%
Siezenheim 2+ goals
39%
Siezenheim 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Eugendorf (draw refunded)
69%
Siezenheim (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eugendorf at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.11 · 83 matches

Siezenheim away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.11 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eugendorf attack 2.10 + Siezenheim defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.10

Siezenheim attack 1.59 + Eugendorf defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Eugendorf scores more
54%
level
21%
Siezenheim scores more
24%

Eugendorf at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Eugendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Eugendorf 1–3 Siezenheim

Siezenheim beat Eugendorf 3-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on August 21, 2025.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Eugendorf in Eugendorf.