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Euforija vs TransINVEST Vilnius — Cup 2020

Euforija
Euforija
FT
1 – 11
HT: 0 – 8
TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilniusadvanced
5/3/2024CupCup · Round of 32Širvintų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Euforija3%
×Draw6%
TransINVEST Vilnius91%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Euforija
1.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
5.44

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 353% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Euforija
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
6.20

allows per match

Euforija
4.67
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.40

finishing

Euforija+0.00on par
TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Euforija ↓

TransINVEST Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–35%
0–47%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–36%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 52% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

Euforija or draw
9%
Euforija or TransINVEST Vilnius
94%
Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius
97%

Winning margin

Euforija wins by 2+
1%
TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+
80%

Team goals

Euforija 1+ goals
70%
Euforija 2+ goals
34%
Euforija 3+ goals
12%
TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals
99%
TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals
96%
TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals
87%

Draw no bet

Euforija (draw refunded)
4%
TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Euforija at home — creates 2.00, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

TransINVEST Vilnius away — creates 6.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Euforija attack 2.00 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 6.20 + Euforija defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 5.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Euforija scores more
3%
level
6%
TransINVEST Vilnius scores more
91%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Euforija 1–11 TransINVEST Vilnius

TransINVEST Vilnius beat Euforija 11-1 in Cup on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Širvintų stadionas in Širvintos.