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Etzella Ettelbruck vs RM Hamm Benfica — National Division 2018

Etzella Ettelbruck
Etzella Ettelbruck
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
RM Hamm Benfica
RM Hamm Benfica
4/7/2019National DivisionNational Division · Round 19Centre Sportif du Deich (Ettelbréck (Ettelbrück))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Etzella Ettelbruck45%
×Draw23%
RM Hamm Benfica31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etzella Ettelbruck
1.75
RM Hamm Benfica
1.42

Etzella Ettelbruck creates 23% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 52 away

creates per match

Etzella Ettelbruck
1.14
RM Hamm Benfica
1.13

allows per match

Etzella Ettelbruck
1.72
RM Hamm Benfica
2.35

finishing

Etzella Ettelbruck+0.00on par
RM Hamm Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etzella Ettelbruck ↓

RM Hamm Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Etzella Ettelbruck or draw
69%
Etzella Ettelbruck or RM Hamm Benfica
77%
Draw or RM Hamm Benfica
55%

Winning margin

Etzella Ettelbruck wins by 2+
24%
RM Hamm Benfica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Etzella Ettelbruck 1+ goals
83%
Etzella Ettelbruck 2+ goals
52%
Etzella Ettelbruck 3+ goals
25%
RM Hamm Benfica 1+ goals
76%
RM Hamm Benfica 2+ goals
41%
RM Hamm Benfica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Etzella Ettelbruck (draw refunded)
59%
RM Hamm Benfica (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etzella Ettelbruck at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.72 · 71 matches

RM Hamm Benfica away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etzella Ettelbruck attack 1.14 + RM Hamm Benfica defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.75

RM Hamm Benfica attack 1.13 + Etzella Ettelbruck defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Etzella Ettelbruck scores more
45%
level
23%
RM Hamm Benfica scores more
31%

Etzella Ettelbruck at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Etzella Ettelbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Bertino Cabral Barbosa
45'
Paulo Arantes
75'
Idir Mokrani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Etzella Ettelbruck 0–3 RM Hamm Benfica

RM Hamm Benfica beat Etzella Ettelbruck 3-0 in National Division on April 7, 2019.

Goals: Bertino Cabral Barbosa (5'), Paulo Arantes (45'), Idir Mokrani (75').

The match was played at Centre Sportif du Deich (Ettelbréck (Ettelbrück)).