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Etzella Ettelbruck vs F91 Dudelange — National Division 2018

Etzella Ettelbruck
Etzella Ettelbruck
Preview
14:00
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
10/11/2026National DivisionNational Division · Round 9Stade Am Deich
Big match
57%
F91 Dudelange
model favours
21%21%57%

F91 Dudelange have won 9 of the last 9 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Etzella Ettelbruck21%
×Draw21%
F91 Dudelange57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etzella Ettelbruck
1.15
F91 Dudelange
2.02

F91 Dudelange creates 76% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 112 away

creates per match

Etzella Ettelbruck
1.16
F91 Dudelange
2.29

allows per match

Etzella Ettelbruck
1.76
F91 Dudelange
1.13

finishing

Etzella Ettelbruck+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etzella Ettelbruck ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Etzella Ettelbruck or draw
43%
Etzella Ettelbruck or F91 Dudelange
79%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
79%

Winning margin

Etzella Ettelbruck wins by 2+
8%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Etzella Ettelbruck 1+ goals
68%
Etzella Ettelbruck 2+ goals
32%
Etzella Ettelbruck 3+ goals
11%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
87%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
60%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Etzella Ettelbruck (draw refunded)
27%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etzella Ettelbruck at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.13 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etzella Ettelbruck attack 1.16 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

F91 Dudelange attack 2.29 + Etzella Ettelbruck defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Etzella Ettelbruck scores more
21%
level
21%
F91 Dudelange scores more
57%

F91 Dudelange at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Etzella Ettelbruck win just 14% against the top half (vs 40% against the bottom)
  • Their last 9 meetings averaged 4.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ettelbruck
LDWD
Dudelange
WWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Etzella Ettelbruck face F91 Dudelange (National Division)

National Division returns with Etzella Ettelbruck hosting F91 Dudelange. Match starts October 11, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Etzella Ettelbruck host F91 Dudelange at Stade Am Deich.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.