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Étoiles Mandé vs Binga — Première Division 2019

Étoiles Mandé
Étoiles Mandé
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Binga
Binga
Unknown 49'
Unknown 32'
5/18/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 23Stade Centre Salif Keita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Étoiles Mandé22%
×Draw30%
Binga48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Étoiles Mandé
0.75
Binga
1.24

Binga creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 56 away

creates per match

Étoiles Mandé
0.62
Binga
1.02

allows per match

Étoiles Mandé
1.46
Binga
0.88

finishing

Étoiles Mandé+0.00on par
Binga+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoiles Mandé ↓

Binga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Étoiles Mandé or draw
52%
Étoiles Mandé or Binga
70%
Draw or Binga
78%

Winning margin

Étoiles Mandé wins by 2+
7%
Binga wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Étoiles Mandé 1+ goals
53%
Étoiles Mandé 2+ goals
17%
Étoiles Mandé 3+ goals
4%
Binga 1+ goals
71%
Binga 2+ goals
35%
Binga 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Étoiles Mandé (draw refunded)
32%
Binga (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoiles Mandé at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Binga away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.88 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoiles Mandé attack 0.62 + Binga defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.75

Binga attack 1.02 + Étoiles Mandé defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Étoiles Mandé scores more
22%
level
30%
Binga scores more
48%

Binga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Binga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
49'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Étoiles Mandé 1–1 Binga

Étoiles Mandé and Binga drew 1-1 in Première Division on May 18, 2025.

Goals: ? (32', 49').

The match was played at Stade Centre Salif Keita in Bamako.