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Étoiles Mandé vs ASKO — Première Division 2019

Étoiles Mandé
Étoiles Mandé
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ASKO
ASKO
2/1/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 11Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Étoiles Mandé25%
×Draw31%
ASKO44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Étoiles Mandé
0.78
ASKO
1.14

ASKO creates 46% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 83 away

creates per match

Étoiles Mandé
0.62
ASKO
0.82

allows per match

Étoiles Mandé
1.46
ASKO
0.95

finishing

Étoiles Mandé+0.00on par
ASKO+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoiles Mandé ↓

ASKO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Étoiles Mandé or draw
56%
Étoiles Mandé or ASKO
69%
Draw or ASKO
75%

Winning margin

Étoiles Mandé wins by 2+
8%
ASKO wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Étoiles Mandé 1+ goals
54%
Étoiles Mandé 2+ goals
18%
Étoiles Mandé 3+ goals
4%
ASKO 1+ goals
68%
ASKO 2+ goals
32%
ASKO 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Étoiles Mandé (draw refunded)
36%
ASKO (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoiles Mandé at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

ASKO away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.95 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoiles Mandé attack 0.62 + ASKO defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.78

ASKO attack 0.82 + Étoiles Mandé defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Étoiles Mandé scores more
25%
level
31%
ASKO scores more
44%

ASKO at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ASKO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Étoiles Mandé vs ASKO

Étoiles Mandé and ASKO drew 1-1 in Première Division on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.