Etoile Filante 1–2 Police: Result & Stats

Etoile Filante

FT

1 – 2

Police

1/7/2024

Championnat National · Round 16Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Etoile Filante38%

×Draw29%

Police33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etoile FilanteExpected goals in this matchPolice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.07

Etoile Filante

1.16

Police

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 74 away

0.73

creates per match

0.85

1.30

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Etoile Filante

0.73

Police

0.85

allows per match

Etoile Filante

1.30

Police

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile Filante ↓

Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Etoile Filante or draw

67%

Etoile Filante or Police

71%

Draw or Police

62%

Winning margin

Etoile Filante wins by 2+

16%

Police wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Etoile Filante 1+ goals

69%

Etoile Filante 2+ goals

32%

Etoile Filante 3+ goals

11%

Police 1+ goals

66%

Police 2+ goals

29%

Police 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Etoile Filante (draw refunded)

53%

Police (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile Filante at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Police away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile Filante attack 0.73 + Police defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.16

Police attack 0.85 + Etoile Filante defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Etoile Filante scores more

38%

level

29%

Police scores more

33%

Etoile Filante at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Etoile Filante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff