Etoile DU Sahel 2–0 JS Kairouanaise: Result & Stats

Etoile DU Sahel

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

JS Kairouanaise

Diogo Acosta 71', 26'

12/11/2016

League #202 · Round 10Stade Olympique de Sousse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Etoile DU Sahel59%

×Draw26%

JS Kairouanaise15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etoile DU SahelExpected goals in this matchJS Kairouanaise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.61

Etoile DU Sahel

1.52

JS Kairouanaise

0.61

Etoile DU Sahel creates 149% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 64 away

1.36

creates per match

0.58

0.64

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Etoile DU Sahel

1.36

JS Kairouanaise

0.58

allows per match

Etoile DU Sahel

0.64

JS Kairouanaise

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile DU Sahel ↓

JS Kairouanaise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Etoile DU Sahel or draw

85%

Etoile DU Sahel or JS Kairouanaise

74%

Draw or JS Kairouanaise

41%

Winning margin

Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+

32%

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals

78%

Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals

45%

Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals

20%

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals

46%

JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals

13%

JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)

80%

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile DU Sahel at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.64 · 39 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.36 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.58 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Etoile DU Sahel scores more

59%

level

26%

JS Kairouanaise scores more

15%

Etoile DU Sahel at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Etoile DU Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Diogo Acosta

45'

S. Badji← H. Bnina

63'

A. Brigui← Alkhali Bangoura

66'

M. Ragoubi← B. Ghannem

71'

Diogo Acosta

78'

A. Jeliti← H. Bellagha

82'

M. Tej← G. Abderrazzak

85'

Anis Mohamed Saltou← Diogo Acosta

Etoile

JS

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Acosta

▼

Bangoura

Manager: F. Benzarti

63'▲A. Brigui←▼Alkhali Bangoura

82'▲M. Tej←▼G. Abderrazzak

85'▲Anis Mohamed Saltou←▼Diogo Acosta

Etoile DU Sahel substitutes

BriguiTejSaltou

Manager: R. Jeddi

45'▲S. Badji←▼H. Bnina

66'▲M. Ragoubi←▼B. Ghannem

78'▲A. Jeliti←▼H. Bellagha

JS Kairouanaise substitutes

BadjiRagoubiJeliti