Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Étoile du Congo vs Nouvelle Génération — League #844 2026

Étoile du Congo
Étoile du Congo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nouvelle Génération
Nouvelle Génération
4/26/2024League #844League #844 · Round 21Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Étoile du Congo66%
×Draw23%
Nouvelle Génération11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Étoile du Congo
1.71
Nouvelle Génération
0.54

Étoile du Congo creates 217% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

Étoile du Congo
1.86
Nouvelle Génération
0.78

allows per match

Étoile du Congo
0.29
Nouvelle Génération
1.56

finishing

Étoile du Congo+0.00on par
Nouvelle Génération+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoile du Congo ↓

Nouvelle Génération →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Étoile du Congo or draw
89%
Étoile du Congo or Nouvelle Génération
77%
Draw or Nouvelle Génération
34%

Winning margin

Étoile du Congo wins by 2+
38%
Nouvelle Génération wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Étoile du Congo 1+ goals
82%
Étoile du Congo 2+ goals
51%
Étoile du Congo 3+ goals
24%
Nouvelle Génération 1+ goals
42%
Nouvelle Génération 2+ goals
10%
Nouvelle Génération 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Étoile du Congo (draw refunded)
85%
Nouvelle Génération (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoile du Congo at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Nouvelle Génération away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoile du Congo attack 1.86 + Nouvelle Génération defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.71

Nouvelle Génération attack 0.78 + Étoile du Congo defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Étoile du Congo scores more
66%
level
23%
Nouvelle Génération scores more
11%

Étoile du Congo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Étoile du Congo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #844: Étoile du Congo 1–0 Nouvelle Génération

Étoile du Congo beat Nouvelle Génération 1-0 in League #844 on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat in Brazzaville.