Etoile de l'Est 0–3 Police: Result & Stats

Etoile de l'Est

FT

0 – 3

Police

12/8/2023

National Soccer League · Round 14Ngoma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Etoile de l'Est31%

×Draw32%

Police37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etoile de l'EstExpected goals in this matchPolice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.02

Etoile de l'Est

0.90

Police

1.02

Police creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 96 away

0.83

creates per match

0.93

1.10

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Etoile de l'Est

0.83

Police

0.93

allows per match

Etoile de l'Est

1.10

Police

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de l'Est ↓

Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Etoile de l'Est or draw

63%

Etoile de l'Est or Police

68%

Draw or Police

69%

Winning margin

Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+

11%

Police wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals

59%

Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals

23%

Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals

6%

Police 1+ goals

64%

Police 2+ goals

27%

Police 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)

45%

Police (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de l'Est at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Police away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.97 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.83 + Police defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

Police attack 0.93 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Etoile de l'Est scores more

31%

level

32%

Police scores more

37%

Police at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff