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Etoile de l'Est vs Bugesera — National Soccer League 2019

Etoile de l'Est
Etoile de l'Est
FT
0 – 1
Bugesera
Bugesera
4/22/2022National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 24Ngoma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Etoile de l'Est34%
×Draw30%
Bugesera36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile de l'Est
1.05
Bugesera
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 97 away

creates per match

Etoile de l'Est
0.83
Bugesera
1.05

allows per match

Etoile de l'Est
1.10
Bugesera
1.27

finishing

Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par
Bugesera+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de l'Est ↓

Bugesera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Etoile de l'Est or draw
64%
Etoile de l'Est or Bugesera
70%
Draw or Bugesera
66%

Winning margin

Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+
13%
Bugesera wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals
65%
Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals
28%
Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals
9%
Bugesera 1+ goals
66%
Bugesera 2+ goals
29%
Bugesera 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)
49%
Bugesera (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de l'Est at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Bugesera away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.83 + Bugesera defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.05

Bugesera attack 1.05 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Etoile de l'Est scores more
34%
level
30%
Bugesera scores more
36%

Bugesera at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bugesera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Etoile de l'Est 0–1 Bugesera

Bugesera beat Etoile de l'Est 1-0 in National Soccer League on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Ngoma Stadium in Kibungo.