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Etoile de Kivu vs TP Mazembe — Ligue 1 2019

Etoile de Kivu
Etoile de Kivu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
12/18/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Etoile de Kivu22%
×Draw29%
TP Mazembe49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile de Kivu
0.78
TP Mazembe
1.32

TP Mazembe creates 69% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 97 away

creates per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
TP Mazembe
1.61

allows per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
TP Mazembe
0.53

finishing

Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de Kivu ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Etoile de Kivu or draw
51%
Etoile de Kivu or TP Mazembe
71%
Draw or TP Mazembe
78%

Winning margin

Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+
7%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals
54%
Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals
18%
Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals
4%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
73%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
38%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)
31%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de Kivu at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de Kivu attack 1.03 + TP Mazembe defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.78

TP Mazembe attack 1.61 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Etoile de Kivu scores more
22%
level
29%
TP Mazembe scores more
49%

TP Mazembe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Etoile de Kivu 0–1 TP Mazembe

TP Mazembe beat Etoile de Kivu 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.