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Etoile de Kivu vs Panda B5 — Ligue 1 2019

Etoile de Kivu
Etoile de Kivu
CANC
13:30
Panda B5
Panda B5
6/8/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade de la Concorde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Etoile de Kivu56%
×Draw26%
Panda B518%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile de Kivu
1.50
Panda B5
0.72

Etoile de Kivu creates 108% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 52 away

creates per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
Panda B5
0.40

allows per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
Panda B5
1.98

finishing

Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par
Panda B5+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de Kivu ↓

Panda B5 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Etoile de Kivu or draw
82%
Etoile de Kivu or Panda B5
74%
Draw or Panda B5
44%

Winning margin

Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+
29%
Panda B5 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals
78%
Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals
44%
Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals
19%
Panda B5 1+ goals
51%
Panda B5 2+ goals
16%
Panda B5 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)
76%
Panda B5 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de Kivu at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

Panda B5 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de Kivu attack 1.03 + Panda B5 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.50

Panda B5 attack 0.40 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Etoile de Kivu scores more
56%
level
26%
Panda B5 scores more
18%

Etoile de Kivu at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Etoile de Kivu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Etoile de Kivu vs Panda B5 — Match Preview

Etoile de Kivu face Panda B5 on June 8, 2023 in this Ligue 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Etoile de Kivu host Panda B5 at Stade de la Concorde.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.