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Etoile de Kivu vs New Jack — Ligue 1 2019

Etoile de Kivu
Etoile de Kivu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
New Jack
New Jack
1/28/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Etoile de Kivu44%
×Draw31%
New Jack26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile de Kivu
1.15
New Jack
0.81

Etoile de Kivu creates 42% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 22 away

creates per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
New Jack
0.59

allows per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
New Jack
1.27

finishing

Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par
New Jack+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de Kivu ↓

New Jack →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Etoile de Kivu or draw
74%
Etoile de Kivu or New Jack
69%
Draw or New Jack
56%

Winning margin

Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+
19%
New Jack wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals
68%
Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals
32%
Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals
11%
New Jack 1+ goals
56%
New Jack 2+ goals
19%
New Jack 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)
63%
New Jack (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de Kivu at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

New Jack away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de Kivu attack 1.03 + New Jack defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

New Jack attack 0.59 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Etoile de Kivu scores more
44%
level
31%
New Jack scores more
26%

Etoile de Kivu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Etoile de Kivu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Etoile de Kivu 0–1 New Jack

New Jack beat Etoile de Kivu 1-0 in Ligue 1 on January 28, 2026.