Etoile de Kivu 0–2 Kuya Sport: Result & Stats

Etoile de Kivu

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kuya Sport

10/23/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade de la Concorde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Etoile de Kivu47%

×Draw28%

Kuya Sport25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etoile de KivuExpected goals in this matchKuya Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.87

Etoile de Kivu

1.31

Kuya Sport

0.87

Etoile de Kivu creates 51% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 35 away

1.03

creates per match

0.71

1.03

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Etoile de Kivu

1.03

Kuya Sport

0.71

allows per match

Etoile de Kivu

1.03

Kuya Sport

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par

Kuya Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de Kivu ↓

Kuya Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Etoile de Kivu or draw

75%

Etoile de Kivu or Kuya Sport

72%

Draw or Kuya Sport

53%

Winning margin

Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+

22%

Kuya Sport wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals

73%

Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals

38%

Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals

14%

Kuya Sport 1+ goals

58%

Kuya Sport 2+ goals

22%

Kuya Sport 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)

65%

Kuya Sport (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de Kivu at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

Kuya Sport away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de Kivu attack 1.03 + Kuya Sport defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kuya Sport attack 0.71 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Etoile de Kivu scores more

47%

level

28%

Kuya Sport scores more

25%

Etoile de Kivu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Etoile de Kivu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff