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Etoile de Kivu vs Anges Verts — Ligue 1 2019

Etoile de Kivu
Etoile de Kivu
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Anges Verts
Anges Verts
10/26/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Etoile de Kivu51%
×Draw27%
Anges Verts22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile de Kivu
1.43
Anges Verts
0.83

Etoile de Kivu creates 72% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 30 away

creates per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
Anges Verts
0.63

allows per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
Anges Verts
1.83

finishing

Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par
Anges Verts+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de Kivu ↓

Anges Verts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Etoile de Kivu or draw
78%
Etoile de Kivu or Anges Verts
73%
Draw or Anges Verts
49%

Winning margin

Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+
25%
Anges Verts wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals
76%
Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals
42%
Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals
17%
Anges Verts 1+ goals
56%
Anges Verts 2+ goals
20%
Anges Verts 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)
70%
Anges Verts (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de Kivu at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

Anges Verts away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de Kivu attack 1.03 + Anges Verts defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.43

Anges Verts attack 0.63 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Etoile de Kivu scores more
51%
level
27%
Anges Verts scores more
22%

Etoile de Kivu at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Etoile de Kivu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Etoile de Kivu 3–2 Anges Verts

Etoile de Kivu beat Anges Verts 3-2 in Ligue 1 on October 26, 2025.