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Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens — Challenge League 2026

Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
Preview
16:00
SC Kriens
SC Kriens
10/31/2026Challenge LeagueChallenge League · Round 12Stade de la Fontenette
45%
Étoile Carouge
model favours
45%22%33%

SC Kriens have scored in 12 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Étoile Carouge45%
×Draw22%
SC Kriens33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Étoile Carouge
1.86
SC Kriens
1.56

Étoile Carouge creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Étoile Carouge
1.43
SC Kriens
1.70

allows per match

Étoile Carouge
1.43
SC Kriens
2.30

finishing

Étoile Carouge+0.00on par
SC Kriens+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoile Carouge ↓

SC Kriens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Étoile Carouge or draw
67%
Étoile Carouge or SC Kriens
78%
Draw or SC Kriens
55%

Winning margin

Étoile Carouge wins by 2+
24%
SC Kriens wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Étoile Carouge 1+ goals
84%
Étoile Carouge 2+ goals
55%
Étoile Carouge 3+ goals
28%
SC Kriens 1+ goals
79%
SC Kriens 2+ goals
46%
SC Kriens 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)
58%
SC Kriens (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoile Carouge at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

SC Kriens away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoile Carouge attack 1.43 + SC Kriens defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.86

SC Kriens attack 1.70 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Étoile Carouge scores more
45%
level
22%
SC Kriens scores more
33%

Étoile Carouge at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 92% of SC Kriens’s matches
  • 67% of SC Kriens’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Carouge
WLWLL
Kriens
LDDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Étoile Carouge host SC Kriens

October 31, 2026: Étoile Carouge take on SC Kriens in Challenge League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Étoile Carouge host SC Kriens at Stade de la Fontenette.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.