Étoile Carouge 2–2 Köniz: Result & Stats

Étoile Carouge

FT

2 – 2

Köniz

10/5/2019

1. Liga Promotion · Round 11Stade de la Fontenette

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Étoile Carouge65%

×Draw18%

Köniz16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Étoile CarougeExpected goals in this matchKöniz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.16

Étoile Carouge

2.46

Köniz

1.16

Étoile Carouge creates 112% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 20 away

2.06

creates per match

1.20

1.11

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Étoile Carouge

2.06

Köniz

1.20

allows per match

Étoile Carouge

1.11

Köniz

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Étoile Carouge+0.00on par

Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoile Carouge ↓

Köniz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Étoile Carouge or draw

84%

Étoile Carouge or Köniz

82%

Draw or Köniz

35%

Winning margin

Étoile Carouge wins by 2+

43%

Köniz wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Étoile Carouge 1+ goals

91%

Étoile Carouge 2+ goals

70%

Étoile Carouge 3+ goals

44%

Köniz 1+ goals

69%

Köniz 2+ goals

32%

Köniz 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)

80%

Köniz (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoile Carouge at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoile Carouge attack 2.06 + Köniz defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.46

Köniz attack 1.20 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Étoile Carouge scores more

65%

level

18%

Köniz scores more

16%

Étoile Carouge at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff