Étoile Carouge 3–1 FC Chiasso: Result & Stats

Étoile Carouge

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Chiasso

11/12/2022

1. Liga Promotion · Round 16Stade de la Fontenette

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Étoile Carouge43%

×Draw24%

FC Chiasso33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Étoile CarougeExpected goals in this matchFC Chiasso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.39

Étoile Carouge

1.61

FC Chiasso

1.39

Étoile Carouge creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 26 away

2.04

creates per match

1.65

1.12

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Étoile Carouge

2.04

FC Chiasso

1.65

allows per match

Étoile Carouge

1.12

FC Chiasso

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Étoile Carouge+0.00on par

FC Chiasso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoile Carouge ↓

FC Chiasso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Étoile Carouge or draw

67%

Étoile Carouge or FC Chiasso

76%

Draw or FC Chiasso

57%

Winning margin

Étoile Carouge wins by 2+

22%

FC Chiasso wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Étoile Carouge 1+ goals

80%

Étoile Carouge 2+ goals

48%

Étoile Carouge 3+ goals

22%

FC Chiasso 1+ goals

75%

FC Chiasso 2+ goals

40%

FC Chiasso 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)

56%

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoile Carouge at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.12 · 69 matches

FC Chiasso away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoile Carouge attack 2.04 + FC Chiasso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC Chiasso attack 1.65 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Étoile Carouge scores more

43%

level

24%

FC Chiasso scores more

33%

Étoile Carouge at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff