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Étoile Carouge vs Cham — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Cham
Cham
3/2/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 21Stade de la Fontenette

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Étoile Carouge50%
×Draw23%
Cham27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Étoile Carouge
1.89
Cham
1.33

Étoile Carouge creates 42% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 104 away

creates per match

Étoile Carouge
2.06
Cham
1.56

allows per match

Étoile Carouge
1.11
Cham
1.72

finishing

Étoile Carouge+0.00on par
Cham+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoile Carouge ↓

Cham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Étoile Carouge or draw
73%
Étoile Carouge or Cham
77%
Draw or Cham
50%

Winning margin

Étoile Carouge wins by 2+
28%
Cham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Étoile Carouge 1+ goals
85%
Étoile Carouge 2+ goals
56%
Étoile Carouge 3+ goals
29%
Cham 1+ goals
74%
Cham 2+ goals
38%
Cham 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)
65%
Cham (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoile Carouge at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

Cham away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoile Carouge attack 2.06 + Cham defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.89

Cham attack 1.56 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Étoile Carouge scores more
50%
level
23%
Cham scores more
27%

Étoile Carouge at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Étoile Carouge vs Cham

Étoile Carouge and Cham drew 3-3 in 1. Liga Promotion on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Fontenette in Carouge.