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Étoile Carouge vs Bulle — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bulle
Bulle
3/25/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 24Stade de la Fontenette

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Étoile Carouge53%
×Draw22%
Bulle25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Étoile Carouge
1.91
Bulle
1.24

Étoile Carouge creates 54% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 68 away

creates per match

Étoile Carouge
2.06
Bulle
1.37

allows per match

Étoile Carouge
1.11
Bulle
1.76

finishing

Étoile Carouge+0.00on par
Bulle+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoile Carouge ↓

Bulle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Étoile Carouge or draw
75%
Étoile Carouge or Bulle
78%
Draw or Bulle
47%

Winning margin

Étoile Carouge wins by 2+
30%
Bulle wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Étoile Carouge 1+ goals
85%
Étoile Carouge 2+ goals
57%
Étoile Carouge 3+ goals
30%
Bulle 1+ goals
71%
Bulle 2+ goals
35%
Bulle 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)
68%
Bulle (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoile Carouge at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

Bulle away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoile Carouge attack 2.06 + Bulle defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.91

Bulle attack 1.37 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Étoile Carouge scores more
53%
level
22%
Bulle scores more
25%

Étoile Carouge at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Étoile Carouge vs Bulle

Étoile Carouge beat Bulle 4-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Fontenette in Carouge.