Étoile Carouge 0–1 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

Étoile Carouge

0 – 1

BSC Young Boys

8/16/2019

Schweizer Cup · 32nd FinalsStade de la Fontenette

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Étoile Carouge13%

×Draw15%

BSC Young Boys72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Étoile CarougeExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

2.88

Étoile Carouge

1.17

BSC Young Boys

2.88

BSC Young Boys creates 146% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

1.29

creates per match

3.77

2.00

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Étoile Carouge

1.29

BSC Young Boys

3.77

allows per match

Étoile Carouge

2.00

BSC Young Boys

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Étoile Carouge+0.00on par

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoile Carouge ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Étoile Carouge or draw

28%

Étoile Carouge or BSC Young Boys

85%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

87%

Winning margin

Étoile Carouge wins by 2+

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Étoile Carouge 1+ goals

69%

Étoile Carouge 2+ goals

33%

Étoile Carouge 3+ goals

11%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

94%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

78%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)

15%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Étoile Carouge at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 3.77, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Étoile Carouge attack 1.29 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

BSC Young Boys attack 3.77 + Étoile Carouge defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Étoile Carouge scores more

13%

level

15%

BSC Young Boys scores more

72%

BSC Young Boys at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff