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Etincelles vs Rayon Sports — National Soccer League 2019

Etincelles
Etincelles
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rayon Sports
Rayon Sports
4/27/2025National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 25Stade Umuganda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Etincelles33%
×Draw29%
Rayon Sports37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etincelles
1.04
Rayon Sports
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 97 away

creates per match

Etincelles
1.16
Rayon Sports
1.24

allows per match

Etincelles
1.00
Rayon Sports
0.93

finishing

Etincelles+0.00on par
Rayon Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etincelles ↓

Rayon Sports →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Etincelles or draw
63%
Etincelles or Rayon Sports
71%
Draw or Rayon Sports
67%

Winning margin

Etincelles wins by 2+
13%
Rayon Sports wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Etincelles 1+ goals
65%
Etincelles 2+ goals
28%
Etincelles 3+ goals
9%
Rayon Sports 1+ goals
67%
Rayon Sports 2+ goals
31%
Rayon Sports 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Etincelles (draw refunded)
47%
Rayon Sports (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etincelles at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Rayon Sports away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.93 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etincelles attack 1.16 + Rayon Sports defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Rayon Sports attack 1.24 + Etincelles defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Etincelles scores more
33%
level
29%
Rayon Sports scores more
37%

Rayon Sports at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rayon Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Etincelles vs Rayon Sports

Rayon Sports beat Etincelles 2-1 in National Soccer League on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Umuganda in Gisenyi.