Etincelles 0–0 Police: Result & Stats

Etincelles

FT

0 – 0

Police

9/18/2024

National Soccer League · Round 1Stade Umuganda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Etincelles37%

×Draw31%

Police32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EtincellesExpected goals in this matchPolice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.97

Etincelles

1.06

Police

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 96 away

1.16

creates per match

0.93

1.00

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Etincelles

1.16

Police

0.93

allows per match

Etincelles

1.00

Police

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etincelles+0.00on par

Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etincelles ↓

Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Etincelles or draw

68%

Etincelles or Police

69%

Draw or Police

63%

Winning margin

Etincelles wins by 2+

15%

Police wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Etincelles 1+ goals

65%

Etincelles 2+ goals

29%

Etincelles 3+ goals

9%

Police 1+ goals

62%

Police 2+ goals

25%

Police 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Etincelles (draw refunded)

53%

Police (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etincelles at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Police away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.97 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etincelles attack 1.16 + Police defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Police attack 0.93 + Etincelles defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Etincelles scores more

37%

level

31%

Police scores more

32%

Etincelles at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Etincelles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff