Etincelles 3–0 Musanze: Result & Stats

Etincelles

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Musanze

5/1/2025

National Soccer League · Round 26Stade Umuganda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Etincelles43%

×Draw28%

Musanze29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EtincellesExpected goals in this matchMusanze

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.02

Etincelles

1.31

Musanze

1.02

Etincelles creates 28% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 98 away

1.16

creates per match

1.04

1.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Etincelles

1.16

Musanze

1.04

allows per match

Etincelles

1.00

Musanze

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etincelles+0.00on par

Musanze+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etincelles ↓

Musanze →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Etincelles or draw

71%

Etincelles or Musanze

72%

Draw or Musanze

57%

Winning margin

Etincelles wins by 2+

20%

Musanze wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Etincelles 1+ goals

73%

Etincelles 2+ goals

38%

Etincelles 3+ goals

14%

Musanze 1+ goals

64%

Musanze 2+ goals

27%

Musanze 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Etincelles (draw refunded)

60%

Musanze (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etincelles at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Musanze away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etincelles attack 1.16 + Musanze defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Musanze attack 1.04 + Etincelles defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Etincelles scores more

43%

level

28%

Musanze scores more

29%

Etincelles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Etincelles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff