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Etincelles vs Gasogi United — National Soccer League 2019

Etincelles
Etincelles
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gasogi United
Gasogi United
9/13/2025National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Regular SeasonUmuganda Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Etincelles41%
×Draw29%
Gasogi United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etincelles
1.19
Gasogi United
0.97

Etincelles creates 23% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 97 away

creates per match

Etincelles
1.16
Gasogi United
0.93

allows per match

Etincelles
1.00
Gasogi United
1.21

finishing

Etincelles+0.00on par
Gasogi United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etincelles ↓

Gasogi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Etincelles or draw
70%
Etincelles or Gasogi United
71%
Draw or Gasogi United
59%

Winning margin

Etincelles wins by 2+
18%
Gasogi United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Etincelles 1+ goals
70%
Etincelles 2+ goals
33%
Etincelles 3+ goals
12%
Gasogi United 1+ goals
62%
Gasogi United 2+ goals
25%
Gasogi United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Etincelles (draw refunded)
58%
Gasogi United (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etincelles at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Gasogi United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.21 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etincelles attack 1.16 + Gasogi United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gasogi United attack 0.93 + Etincelles defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Etincelles scores more
41%
level
29%
Gasogi United scores more
30%

Etincelles at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Etincelles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Etincelles 0–0 Gasogi United

Etincelles and Gasogi United drew 0-0 in National Soccer League on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Umuganda Stadium in Gisenyi.