Etimesgut SK 0–2 Yeni Malatyaspor: Result & Stats

Etimesgut SK

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Yeni Malatyaspor

12/19/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundEtimesgut Belediyesi Kemal Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Etimesgut SK58%

×Draw24%

Yeni Malatyaspor18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etimesgut SKExpected goals in this matchYeni Malatyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.84

Etimesgut SK

1.73

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.84

Etimesgut SK creates 106% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.45

creates per match

0.86

0.82

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Etimesgut SK

1.45

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.86

allows per match

Etimesgut SK

0.82

Yeni Malatyaspor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etimesgut SK+0.00on par

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etimesgut SK ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Etimesgut SK or draw

82%

Etimesgut SK or Yeni Malatyaspor

76%

Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor

42%

Winning margin

Etimesgut SK wins by 2+

33%

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Etimesgut SK 1+ goals

82%

Etimesgut SK 2+ goals

52%

Etimesgut SK 3+ goals

25%

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

57%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

21%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Etimesgut SK (draw refunded)

76%

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etimesgut SK at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etimesgut SK attack 1.45 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.86 + Etimesgut SK defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Etimesgut SK scores more

58%

level

24%

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

18%

Etimesgut SK at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Etimesgut SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff