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Etimesgut SK vs Şırnak İdmanyurdu — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Etimesgut SK
Etimesgut SK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
10/9/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundEtimesgut Belediyesi Atatürk Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Etimesgut SK82%
×Draw12%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etimesgut SK
2.73
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
0.57

Etimesgut SK creates 379% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Etimesgut SK
1.45
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
0.33

allows per match

Etimesgut SK
0.82
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
4.00

finishing

Etimesgut SK+0.00on par
Şırnak İdmanyurdu+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etimesgut SK ↓

Şırnak İdmanyurdu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Etimesgut SK or draw
94%
Etimesgut SK or Şırnak İdmanyurdu
88%
Draw or Şırnak İdmanyurdu
18%

Winning margin

Etimesgut SK wins by 2+
61%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Etimesgut SK 1+ goals
93%
Etimesgut SK 2+ goals
75%
Etimesgut SK 3+ goals
50%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu 1+ goals
43%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu 2+ goals
11%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Etimesgut SK (draw refunded)
94%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etimesgut SK at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Şırnak İdmanyurdu away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etimesgut SK attack 1.45 + Şırnak İdmanyurdu defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.73

Şırnak İdmanyurdu attack 0.33 + Etimesgut SK defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Etimesgut SK scores more
82%
level
12%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu scores more
6%

Etimesgut SK at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Etimesgut SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Etimesgut SK 2–1 Şırnak İdmanyurdu

Etimesgut SK beat Şırnak İdmanyurdu 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 9, 2024.

The match was played at Etimesgut Belediyesi Atatürk Stadı in Etimesgut.