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Etimesgut SK vs Kahta 02 Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Etimesgut SK
Etimesgut SK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kahta 02 Spor
Kahta 02 Spor
10/27/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd Round15 Temmuz Milli Birlik Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Etimesgut SK52%
×Draw23%
Kahta 02 Spor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etimesgut SK
1.81
Kahta 02 Spor
1.16

Etimesgut SK creates 56% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Etimesgut SK
1.45
Kahta 02 Spor
1.50

allows per match

Etimesgut SK
0.82
Kahta 02 Spor
2.17

finishing

Etimesgut SK+0.00on par
Kahta 02 Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etimesgut SK ↓

Kahta 02 Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Etimesgut SK or draw
76%
Etimesgut SK or Kahta 02 Spor
77%
Draw or Kahta 02 Spor
48%

Winning margin

Etimesgut SK wins by 2+
29%
Kahta 02 Spor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Etimesgut SK 1+ goals
84%
Etimesgut SK 2+ goals
54%
Etimesgut SK 3+ goals
27%
Kahta 02 Spor 1+ goals
69%
Kahta 02 Spor 2+ goals
32%
Kahta 02 Spor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Etimesgut SK (draw refunded)
68%
Kahta 02 Spor (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etimesgut SK at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Kahta 02 Spor away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etimesgut SK attack 1.45 + Kahta 02 Spor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kahta 02 Spor attack 1.50 + Etimesgut SK defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Etimesgut SK scores more
52%
level
23%
Kahta 02 Spor scores more
24%

Etimesgut SK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Etimesgut SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Etimesgut SK 0–1 Kahta 02 Spor

Kahta 02 Spor beat Etimesgut SK 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at 15 Temmuz Milli Birlik Stadyumu in Sincan.