Ethnikos Achna 1–0 Krasava Ypsonas: Result & Stats

Ethnikos Achna

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Krasava Ypsonas

E. Lomotey 78'

10/5/2025

1. Division · Round 6Ethnikos Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ethnikos Achna43%

×Draw26%

Krasava Ypsonas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ethnikos AchnaExpected goals in this matchKrasava Ypsonas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.13

Ethnikos Achna

1.41

Krasava Ypsonas

1.13

Ethnikos Achna creates 25% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 16 away

1.25

creates per match

0.94

1.32

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Ethnikos Achna

1.25

Krasava Ypsonas

0.94

allows per match

Ethnikos Achna

1.32

Krasava Ypsonas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Krasava Ypsonas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethnikos Achna ↓

Krasava Ypsonas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ethnikos Achna or draw

70%

Ethnikos Achna or Krasava Ypsonas

74%

Draw or Krasava Ypsonas

57%

Winning margin

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

21%

Krasava Ypsonas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

76%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

41%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

17%

Krasava Ypsonas 1+ goals

68%

Krasava Ypsonas 2+ goals

31%

Krasava Ypsonas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

59%

Krasava Ypsonas (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethnikos Achna at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

Krasava Ypsonas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.25 + Krasava Ypsonas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Krasava Ypsonas attack 0.94 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ethnikos Achna scores more

43%

level

26%

Krasava Ypsonas scores more

30%

Ethnikos Achna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ethnikos Achna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Do Couto

Krasava Ypsonas · M

7.9

Match Events

54'

Richard Ofori

55'

M. Pechlivanis← J. Cejas

70'

M. Maia← M. Kane

70'

Rodriguinho← L. Machado

75'

76'

78'

80'

86'

86'

88'

90+3'

M. Dimitriou← G. Papageorgiou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EthnikosKrasava

Overview

47%Possession53%

4Total Shots7

1.13Expected Goals (xG)0.41

0Corners7

12Fouls19

Shots

4Total Shots7

3On Target2

0Off Target3

1Blocked1

3Inside Box4

1Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

368Total Passes409

297Accurate Passes342

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls19

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1