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Ethnikos Achna vs Karmiotissa — 1. Division 2019

Ethnikos Achna
Ethnikos Achna
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Karmiotissa
Karmiotissa
11/3/20241. Division1. Division · Round 9Stadio Dasaki Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Ethnikos Achna49%
×Draw25%
Karmiotissa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethnikos Achna
1.63
Karmiotissa
1.14

Ethnikos Achna creates 43% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ethnikos Achna
1.25
Karmiotissa
0.96

allows per match

Ethnikos Achna
1.32
Karmiotissa
2.01

finishing

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par
Karmiotissa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethnikos Achna ↓

Karmiotissa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ethnikos Achna or draw
73%
Ethnikos Achna or Karmiotissa
75%
Draw or Karmiotissa
51%

Winning margin

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+
26%
Karmiotissa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals
80%
Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals
48%
Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals
22%
Karmiotissa 1+ goals
68%
Karmiotissa 2+ goals
32%
Karmiotissa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)
65%
Karmiotissa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethnikos Achna at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

Karmiotissa away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.01 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.25 + Karmiotissa defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.63

Karmiotissa attack 0.96 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ethnikos Achna scores more
49%
level
25%
Karmiotissa scores more
27%

Ethnikos Achna at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ethnikos Achna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ethnikos Achna vs Karmiotissa

Ethnikos Achna beat Karmiotissa 3-2 in 1. Division on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Dasaki Achnas in Dasaki Achnas.