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Ethnikos Achna vs Aris — Cup 2019

Ethnikos Achna
Ethnikos Achna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Aris
Aris
1/25/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundStadio Dasaki Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ethnikos Achna47%
×Draw21%
Aris31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethnikos Achna
2.08
Aris
1.67

Ethnikos Achna creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ethnikos Achna
2.00
Aris
2.33

allows per match

Ethnikos Achna
1.00
Aris
2.17

finishing

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par
Aris+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethnikos Achna ↓

Aris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ethnikos Achna or draw
69%
Ethnikos Achna or Aris
79%
Draw or Aris
53%

Winning margin

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+
27%
Aris wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals
87%
Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals
61%
Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals
34%
Aris 1+ goals
81%
Aris 2+ goals
50%
Aris 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)
60%
Aris (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethnikos Achna at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Aris away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethnikos Achna attack 2.00 + Aris defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Aris attack 2.33 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ethnikos Achna scores more
47%
level
21%
Aris scores more
31%

Ethnikos Achna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ethnikos Achna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Ethnikos Achna 1–2 Aris

Aris beat Ethnikos Achna 2-1 in Cup on January 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Dasaki Achnas in Dasaki Achnas.