Aris 3–0 Ethnikos Achna: Result & Stats

Aris

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ethnikos Achna

9/26/2025

1. Division · Round 5Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Aris57%

×Draw22%

Ethnikos Achna20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArisExpected goals in this matchEthnikos Achna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.02

Aris

1.87

Ethnikos Achna

1.02

Aris creates 83% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 101 away

1.80

creates per match

1.22

0.83

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Aris

1.80

Ethnikos Achna

1.22

allows per match

Aris

0.83

Ethnikos Achna

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aris+0.00on par

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aris ↓

Ethnikos Achna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Aris or draw

80%

Aris or Ethnikos Achna

78%

Draw or Ethnikos Achna

43%

Winning margin

Aris wins by 2+

33%

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Aris 1+ goals

85%

Aris 2+ goals

56%

Aris 3+ goals

29%

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

64%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

27%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aris (draw refunded)

74%

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aris at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.83 · 88 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aris attack 1.80 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.87

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.22 + Aris defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Aris scores more

57%

level

22%

Ethnikos Achna scores more

20%

Aris at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Aris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff