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Ethiopian Medhin vs Mekelakeya — Premier League 2019

Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopian Medhin
FT
0 – 1
Mekelakeya
Mekelakeya
12/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ethiopian Medhin31%
×Draw29%
Mekelakeya40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopian Medhin
0.99
Mekelakeya
1.18

Mekelakeya creates 19% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 81 away

creates per match

Ethiopian Medhin
1.11
Mekelakeya
1.35

allows per match

Ethiopian Medhin
1.00
Mekelakeya
0.86

finishing

Ethiopian Medhin+0.00on par
Mekelakeya+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopian Medhin ↓

Mekelakeya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ethiopian Medhin or draw
60%
Ethiopian Medhin or Mekelakeya
71%
Draw or Mekelakeya
69%

Winning margin

Ethiopian Medhin wins by 2+
11%
Mekelakeya wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ethiopian Medhin 1+ goals
63%
Ethiopian Medhin 2+ goals
26%
Ethiopian Medhin 3+ goals
8%
Mekelakeya 1+ goals
69%
Mekelakeya 2+ goals
33%
Mekelakeya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ethiopian Medhin (draw refunded)
43%
Mekelakeya (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopian Medhin at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 66 matches

Mekelakeya away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopian Medhin attack 1.11 + Mekelakeya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Mekelakeya attack 1.35 + Ethiopian Medhin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ethiopian Medhin scores more
31%
level
29%
Mekelakeya scores more
40%

Mekelakeya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ethiopian Medhin vs Mekelakeya

Mekelakeya beat Ethiopian Medhin 1-0 in Premier League on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.