Ethiopian Medhin 3–0 Kedus Giorgis: Result & Stats

Ethiopian Medhin

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kedus Giorgis

2/25/2026

Premier League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ethiopian Medhin30%

×Draw30%

Kedus Giorgis40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ethiopian MedhinExpected goals in this matchKedus Giorgis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.15

Ethiopian Medhin

0.94

Kedus Giorgis

1.15

Kedus Giorgis creates 22% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 101 away

1.11

creates per match

1.29

1.00

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Ethiopian Medhin

1.11

Kedus Giorgis

1.29

allows per match

Ethiopian Medhin

1.00

Kedus Giorgis

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethiopian Medhin+0.00on par

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopian Medhin ↓

Kedus Giorgis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ethiopian Medhin or draw

60%

Ethiopian Medhin or Kedus Giorgis

70%

Draw or Kedus Giorgis

70%

Winning margin

Ethiopian Medhin wins by 2+

11%

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ethiopian Medhin 1+ goals

61%

Ethiopian Medhin 2+ goals

24%

Ethiopian Medhin 3+ goals

7%

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals

68%

Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals

32%

Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ethiopian Medhin (draw refunded)

42%

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopian Medhin at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 66 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopian Medhin attack 1.11 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Ethiopian Medhin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ethiopian Medhin scores more

30%

level

30%

Kedus Giorgis scores more

40%

Kedus Giorgis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff