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Ethiopian Medhin vs Bahardar — Premier League 2019

Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopian Medhin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bahardar
Bahardar
5/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Hawassa Artificial Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ethiopian Medhin32%
×Draw30%
Bahardar37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopian Medhin
0.98
Bahardar
1.08

Bahardar creates 10% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 103 away

creates per match

Ethiopian Medhin
1.11
Bahardar
1.16

allows per match

Ethiopian Medhin
1.00
Bahardar
0.85

finishing

Ethiopian Medhin+0.00on par
Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopian Medhin ↓

Bahardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ethiopian Medhin or draw
63%
Ethiopian Medhin or Bahardar
70%
Draw or Bahardar
68%

Winning margin

Ethiopian Medhin wins by 2+
12%
Bahardar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ethiopian Medhin 1+ goals
62%
Ethiopian Medhin 2+ goals
26%
Ethiopian Medhin 3+ goals
8%
Bahardar 1+ goals
66%
Bahardar 2+ goals
29%
Bahardar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ethiopian Medhin (draw refunded)
46%
Bahardar (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopian Medhin at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 66 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopian Medhin attack 1.11 + Bahardar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Bahardar attack 1.16 + Ethiopian Medhin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ethiopian Medhin scores more
32%
level
30%
Bahardar scores more
37%

Bahardar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ethiopian Medhin vs Bahardar

Bahardar beat Ethiopian Medhin 2-1 in Premier League on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Hawassa Artificial Field in Hawassa.