Ethiopia W 3–0 South Sudan W: Result & Stats

Ethiopia W

FT

3 – 0

South Sudan W

4/13/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Addis Ababa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ethiopia W97%

×Draw2%

South Sudan W1%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ethiopia WExpected goals in this matchSouth Sudan W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

6.13

0.63

Ethiopia W

6.13

South Sudan W

0.63

Ethiopia W creates 873% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

7.75

creates per match

1.25

0.00

allows per match

4.50

creates per match

Ethiopia W

7.75

South Sudan W

1.25

allows per match

Ethiopia W

0.00

South Sudan W

4.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethiopia W+0.00on par

South Sudan W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia W ↓

South Sudan W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–11%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–12%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (12%) · grid covers 46% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

94%6%3.5

84%16%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

Ethiopia W or draw

99%

Ethiopia W or South Sudan W

98%

Draw or South Sudan W

3%

Winning margin

Ethiopia W wins by 2+

92%

South Sudan W wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Ethiopia W 1+ goals

100%

Ethiopia W 2+ goals

97%

Ethiopia W 3+ goals

90%

South Sudan W 1+ goals

47%

South Sudan W 2+ goals

13%

South Sudan W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia W (draw refunded)

99%

South Sudan W (draw refunded)

1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia W at home — creates 7.75, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

South Sudan W away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia W attack 7.75 + South Sudan W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 6.13

South Sudan W attack 1.25 + Ethiopia W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

Ethiopia W scores more

97%

level

2%

South Sudan W scores more

1%

Ethiopia W at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Ethiopia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff