Ethiopia 1–0 Sierra Leone: Result & Stats

Ethiopia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sierra Leone

9/9/2018

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Hawassa Stadium (Hawassa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ethiopia28%

×Draw39%

Sierra Leone33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EthiopiaExpected goals in this matchSierra Leone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.63

0.71

Ethiopia

0.63

Sierra Leone

0.71

Sierra Leone creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.25

creates per match

0.67

0.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ethiopia

0.25

Sierra Leone

0.67

allows per match

Ethiopia

0.75

Sierra Leone

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethiopia+0.00on par

Sierra Leone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under85
Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No76
Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia ↓

Sierra Leone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–026%

0–119%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

74%26%1.5

39%61%2.5

15%85%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Ethiopia or draw

67%

Ethiopia or Sierra Leone

61%

Draw or Sierra Leone

72%

Winning margin

Ethiopia wins by 2+

7%

Sierra Leone wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ethiopia 1+ goals

47%

Ethiopia 2+ goals

13%

Ethiopia 3+ goals

3%

Sierra Leone 1+ goals

51%

Sierra Leone 2+ goals

16%

Sierra Leone 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia (draw refunded)

46%

Sierra Leone (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

12%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia at home — creates 0.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Sierra Leone away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia attack 0.25 + Sierra Leone defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Sierra Leone attack 0.67 + Ethiopia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Ethiopia scores more

28%

level

39%

Sierra Leone scores more

33%

Sierra Leone at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Sierra Leone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff