Ethiopia 1–1 Lesotho: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Ethiopia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lesotho

5/31/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ethiopia50%

×Draw28%

Lesotho22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EthiopiaExpected goals in this matchLesotho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.82

Ethiopia

1.38

Lesotho

0.82

Ethiopia creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

0.64

1.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Ethiopia

1.20

Lesotho

0.64

allows per match

Ethiopia

1.00

Lesotho

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethiopia+0.00on par

Lesotho+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia ↓

Lesotho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ethiopia or draw

78%

Ethiopia or Lesotho

72%

Draw or Lesotho

50%

Winning margin

Ethiopia wins by 2+

24%

Lesotho wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ethiopia 1+ goals

75%

Ethiopia 2+ goals

40%

Ethiopia 3+ goals

16%

Lesotho 1+ goals

56%

Lesotho 2+ goals

20%

Lesotho 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia (draw refunded)

69%

Lesotho (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Lesotho away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia attack 1.20 + Lesotho defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lesotho attack 0.64 + Ethiopia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ethiopia scores more

50%

level

28%

Lesotho scores more

22%

Ethiopia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ethiopia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff