Ethiopia vs Cape Verde Islands — Africa Cup of Nations 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Ethiopia31%
Cape Verde Islands31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 4 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under83
- Over17
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No74
- Yes26
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ethiopia ↓
Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ethiopia at home — creates 0.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches
Cape Verde Islands away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ethiopia attack 0.25 + Cape Verde Islands defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.71
Cape Verde Islands attack 0.67 + Ethiopia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 31%?"
Ethiopia at 31% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 31% does not mean "Ethiopia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
Nigeria
Senegal
Morocco
Egypt
Ivory Coast
Algeria
Cameroon
Congo DR
South Africa
Burkina Faso
Tunisia
Mali
Benin
Mozambique
Sudan
Angola
Tanzania
Comoros
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Uganda
Gabon
Equatorial Guinea
BotswanaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Ethiopia host Cape Verde Islands on Sunday, 9 January 2022 at 19:00. The match is part of the Africa Cup of Nations 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Ethiopia vs Cape Verde Islands
Cape Verde Islands beat Ethiopia 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 9, 2022.
Goals: Júlio Tavares (45+1').
Cape Verde Islands controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 7.
The match was played at Stade Omnisport Paul Biya in Yaoundé.