Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Sidama Bunna — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
4/5/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Hawassa University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank41%
×Draw28%
Sidama Bunna32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.29
Sidama Bunna
1.11

Ethiopia Nigd Bank creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.47
Sidama Bunna
1.19

allows per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.04
Sidama Bunna
1.11

finishing

Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par
Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Nigd Bank ↓

Sidama Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ethiopia Nigd Bank or draw
68%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank or Sidama Bunna
72%
Draw or Sidama Bunna
59%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
18%
Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
72%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
37%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
14%
Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
67%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
30%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
56%
Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Sidama Bunna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.47 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sidama Bunna attack 1.19 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
41%
level
28%
Sidama Bunna scores more
32%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2–1 Sidama Bunna

Ethiopia Nigd Bank beat Sidama Bunna 2-1 in Premier League on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Hawassa University Stadium in Hawassa.